El Niño/La Niña Update (June 2009) Document 18 June 2009 Rapid changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific in recent months, and an increasing number of computer model predictions, are now pointing to a substantial likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of 2009. However, surface climate conditions in the tropical Pacific are overall still considered near-neutral at this time. The situation therefore warrants especially careful monitoring over the next couple of months. Current assessments suggest that by the end of the third quarter of 2009, El Niño and near-neutral conditions are considered about equally likely outcomes across the tropical Pacific, with La Niña very unlikely. To place this in better context, El Niño typically occurs once every 4-5 years, so the current assessments translate to a substantially elevated risk of an El Niño developing later this year. This information, when expressed in terms of expected climate patterns, will be relevant to many climate-related risk management systems, and users are encouraged to seek detailed interpretations for their locations and sectors. Download document Share: Document type: El NIño / La Niña Update