El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2016)

The 2015-16 El Niño has passed its peak strength, but remains strong and continues to influence global climate patterns. It is expected to continue to weaken over the coming months, with models indicating a return to ENSO-neutral during the second quarter of 2016. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures clearly exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above average in late 2015, providing evidence that the 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest on record, comparable with the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to monitor the decline of this El Niño, and assess likely local impacts.