El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2008) Document 11 February 2008 La Niña conditions, which started in the third quarter of 2007, continue across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. Basin-wide features are now typical of the mature stage of a La Niña event, including in the western Equatorial Pacific. The magnitude of the event continues to be in the middle range of those observed in the historical record. The La Niña event is expected to continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. Many La Niña events in the historical record are found to decay rapidly during the March-May period, but it cannot be determined at this time whether or not this event will decay during the same period. By the middle of the year, La Niña and, what is referred to as ‘neutral conditions’ are considered to be about equally likely, with El Niño continuing to have a low likelihood of occurrence at this stage. Long-term statistics indicate neutral conditions should currently be considered a more likely outcome for the latter part of 2008. Download document Share: Document type: El NIño / La Niña Update